First Impressions Matter: A Model of Confirmatory Bias
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
First Impressions Matter: a Model of Confirmatory Bias
Psychological research indicates that people have a cognitive bias that leads them to misinterpret new information as supporting previously held hypotheses. We model such confirmatory bias in a symmetric model in which exactly one of two hypotheses is true. We show that the confirmatory bias induces overconfidence: Given any probabilistic assessment by an agent that one of the hypotheses is pro...
متن کاملFirst Impressions Matter: Signalling as a Source of Policy Dynamics
We first establish that policymakers on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee choose lower interest rates with experience. We then reject increasing confidence in private information or learning about the structure of the macroeconomy as explanations for this shift. Instead, a model in which voters signal their hawkishness to observers better fits the data. The motivation for signalli...
متن کاملBreaking the News: First Impressions Matter on Online News
A growing number of people are changing the way they consume news, replacing the traditional physical newspapers and magazines by their virtual online versions or/and weblogs. The interactivity and immediacy present in online news are changing the way news are being produced and exposed by media corporations. News websites have to create effective strategies to catch people’s attention and attr...
متن کاملFirst impressions.
'During a consultation there are two people at work. While the doctor is searching for a diagnosis, the patient is quietly summing up the doctor. And it is often the patient who reaches his conclusion first.' This quote from William Evans illustrates how the consultation involves a two-way analysis by both doctor and patient.
متن کاملLasting first impressions: a conservative bias in automatic filters of the acoustic environment.
Even in the unattended auditory environment, what we learn first appears resistant to re-evaluation based on experience. Mismatch negativity (MMN) is an auditory event-related potential elicited to rare deviation from automatically generated predictions about the sound environment. MMN amplitude is thought to reflect the potential importance of a sound for further processing. This study was des...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: The Quarterly Journal of Economics
سال: 1999
ISSN: 0033-5533,1531-4650
DOI: 10.1162/003355399555945